The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a fresh warning that El Niño conditions are highly likely to develop in the coming months, with forecasts indicating an 80 percent chance of the climate phenomenon emerging between June and August 2026.
According to the latest WMO update, the probability of El Niño persisting through at least November exceeds 90 percent. While uncertainties remain regarding the exact timing and intensity of the event, most climate models suggest it will reach at least moderate strength and could potentially become a strong episode.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the forecast as a serious global warning, urging countries to prepare for its far-reaching consequences.
“The science is clear. El Niño is approaching with a high degree of certainty and will add to the pressures created by a warming planet,” Guterres said, warning that the effects could spread rapidly across national borders and intensify existing climate challenges.
Meteorologists have observed rising sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, a key indicator used to monitor El Niño development. The warming is being reinforced by unusually high subsurface ocean temperatures, which are more than 6°C above average in some areas and are providing additional heat to fuel the phenomenon.
The atmospheric signals associated with El Niño are also becoming increasingly evident. The Southern Oscillation Index, an important climate indicator, is showing patterns consistent with the emergence of El Niño conditions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the world must be ready for the possibility of a strong event that could trigger severe weather extremes across many regions.
She noted that El Niño often increases the likelihood of droughts, intense rainfall, heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in the oceans. The most recent El Niño episode in 2023-24 ranked among the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024.
Saulo emphasized that the WMO and national meteorological agencies will closely monitor developments and continue providing forecasts and early warnings to help governments and vulnerable sectors prepare for potential impacts.
The WMO also released a Global Seasonal Climate Update to provide more detailed regional outlooks by taking into account other climate factors in addition to El Niño.
Experts say timely forecasts and early warning systems will be critical in reducing risks to lives, economies and communities as the world braces for another potentially significant El Niño event.
